Monday, September 17, 2012

Detangling the LotFP Adventures Campaign Results


The four successfully-funded projects in LotFP Adventures Campaign are difficult to use as crowdfunding data points, because they cannibalized and/or subsidized one another, and also because three significant, backer-enticing additions were made to the overall project pool once it became clear that only a scant few projects would fund, and you could potentially get some or all of those additions by pledging on any one of the successful projects. The following analysis attempts to detangle the projects from one another, and from the additions, in order to give a better idea of how each project did on its own merits.

The detangled results come first, with a methodology explanation afterward.

The Seclusium of Orphone
$6647 raised / 311 backers
(math: $355 Upsell + $4170 module only + $500 retailer + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $6647)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $7535 raised / 250 backers)

Broodmother Sky Fortress
$4757 raised / 221 backers
(math: $55 Upsell + $2580 module only + $500 retailer + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $4757)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $7050 raised / 167 backers)

Horror Amongst Thieves
$4955 raised / 228 backers
(math: $213 Upsell + $2620 module only + $500 retailer + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $4955)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $6623 raised / 177 backers)

Towers Two
$6683 raised ($3923 without GWAR swag) / 175 backers
(math: $501 Upsell + $760 module only + $3800 GWAR swag + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $6683)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $6601 raised / 112 backers)
Note to prospective module authors: Offer GWAR swag as perks. Or just be Brockie. But that may not help your return on investment.

bonus Conley sandbox supplement + bonus Raggi 8-page adventure
$1622 raised / 76 backers
(math: $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $1622)

bonus Raggi 64-page adventure
$3092 raised / 43 backers
(math: $2850 Faithful + $140 Collector + $102 collector share = $3092)

Methodology

First, a disclaimer: There are many ways the data can be detangled. This is merely one possibility. Enjoy it or don't. YMMV. Also, the total backer count on Indiegogo.com doesn't always match up to the sum of the backers in the various categories. And somehow, even though I double checked my math, the total of the numbers above comes up about $50 short of the sum of the totals as shown on Indiegogo. Sigh. And maybe I missed a concrete bonus offering somewhere. Good thing this study isn't meant to be precise.

Regarding Backer Count

Backers at the Grab Bag level, various Faithful levels, and the Collectors levels will receive each of the successful projects. (Let's call those backers "GB+".) Therefore, backers at those levels count toward all of the successful projects. For example, Seclusium's detangled backer count is 250, plus the 22 GB+ backers for Broodmother, plus the 25 GB+ backers for Horror, plus the 13 GB+ backers for Towers, for a total of 311.

Backers at the GB+ levels will also receive the bonus Conley sandbox supplement and the bonus Raggi 8-page adventure. Therefore, all backers at the GB+ level on the four successful projects count as backers of that "joint" bonus project. 16 + 22 + 25 + 13 = 76.

Backers at the Faithful and Collectors levels will receive the bonus Raggi 64-page adventure. Therefore, all backers at those levels on the four successful projects count as backers of the Raggi 64-page bonus. 13 + 15 + 11 + 4 = 43

Regarding Funds Raised

The amount each project raised via the Upsell category is not trivially visible. To determine the amount pledged via the Upsell, take the funding total and subtract the amounts pledged in the other categories. For example, Seclusium: $7535 - (10 x $75) - (81 x $20) - (60 x $30) - (3 x $100) - (7 x $160) - (4 x $180) - (2 x $185) - (2 x $250) = $355 toward Upsell. It's difficult to know what the Upsell money went toward, so for detangling purposes …

1. All Upsell money counts toward the project on which it was pledged.

2. All $10 / $20 / $30 pledges count toward the project on which it was pledged. (Duh.)

3. All Retailer Support ($250) pledges count toward the project on which it was pledged. (Duh again.)

4. The GWAR swag pledges count only toward Brockie's project. (Yup.)

5. All Grab Bag ($100) pledges are split five ways. $20 toward each of the base projects, plus $20 more toward the hybrid bonus Conley sandbox + Raggi 8-page category. (Or you could split it six ways and treat the hybrid as two projects. But 5 is good because the math with $20 is easier than math with $16.67.)

6. All Faithful ($160 / $180) pledges are split. The first $100 of those are split five ways, with $20 going to various projects, the same as with Grab Bag. The rest counts directly toward the only additional thing backers are supposed to receive: The Raggi 64-page adventure.

7. The two Collector ($450 / $500) pledges are split. The first $100 of each gets split five ways, as above. The next $60 / $80 of each counts toward the Raggi 64-page adventure. The rest gets split six ways ($610 / 6 = $102) and applied to each of the base projects, and the hybrid bonus, and the Raggi 64 bonus. After all, most or all of those products will be included in the hardback collection.

Furthermore:

Some of the projects added various gaming-related enticements. Horror was a no-risk pledge; backers would get the product (and their money back) if the project didn't successfully fund. Baker gave away free pdfs of his other material. Conley tossed in bonuses that potentially any pledger could get. These factors aren't worth detangling, because they're not unlike the extras other crowdfunding campaigns offer. (Well, Horror's enticements was unlike the other extras. But it's hard to detangle that.)

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