Showing posts with label Crowdfunding. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crowdfunding. Show all posts

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Tome of Horrors Complete "Kickstarter" Results


The final "kickstarter" results for the Swords & Wizardry version of Tome of Horrors Complete are ...

$30776 raised / 330 backers
(That's for the Swords & Wizardry version only. It does not include the payments from the backers of the Pathfinder version.)

Now, this wasn't actually hosted on kickstarter.com, nor was it funded using a kickstarter-like ransom model. It was really a pre-order, so the book was coming out regardless of how many folks pre-ordered. It all took place over a year ago, so this isn't a particularly recent event. And the numbers above are actually just estimates, as explained below.

But let's look at the pre-order as though it were a crowdfunded project...

Announced: 2011 Jan 3 or earlier (source)
Pre-order start: 2011 Mar 6 (source)
Pre-order end: 2011 Jul 5 (source), though it was originally slated to end Jun 1 (source), and already had one prior bump out to Jun 30 (source).
Price: $89.99 for pre-orders, $99.99 afterward (source)

Estimating the Number of Backers

The exact number of pre-orders was never made public. But enough info was made public to allow a reasonable guess at the number of backers. Bill Webb (the chief dude of Frog God Games) is the primary source here, but Matt Finch also chimed in with some details that give insight.

549 copies were printed (source) in total, but not all of those were pre-ordered, because some of the print run was reserved for other purposes:
  • Some number of "authors copies" were reserved to give to the authors (source)
  • Some number were reserved for "other commitments" (source)
  • 50 copies to sell at the North Texas RPG Con (source) (source)
  • As many as 150 (source), or perhaps as few as 70 (source) were reserved for general sale after the pre-order period. It's not clear whether that 150 number includes those in reserve for NTRPG Con. Matt Finch guesstimates that 100 copies would be available for general sale (source), beyond pre-orders, and beyond those reserved for NTRPG Con.
  • Matt Finch guesstimates that 300 - 350 copies were sold during pre-order period (source), including some of those going directly to vendors. But this was potentially based on inaccurate understanding of the print run size; he thought the print run was about 500 (source)
It's reasonable to think around 25-50 copies were reserved as authors copies or for "other commitments". Authors sometimes receive multiple copies, and other members of the production staff sometimes receive a copy. There are a bunch of people listed in the credits.

So we end up with 549 copies, minus 50 copies for NTRPG Con, minus 70-150 copies for general sale, minus 25-50 copies for authors & such. This gives a guesstimate range of between 299 and 404 pre-ordered copies, which aligns with fairly well with Matt's guesstimate above.

I split the difference and went with 352 copies pre-ordered.

However, about 25 of those copies went to resellers/vendors (Noble Knight, Troll & Toad, and Jim Raggi – source). So 25 of the pre-ordered copies were actually represented by just 3 "backers."

Which yields a guesstimated backer total of 330. (352 - 25 + 3)

Estimating the Funds Raised

327 of the pre-ordered copies were bought by individuals who paid $89.99 per book.

The 25 bought by resellers were almost certainly purchased at a discount. A standard reseller pays about 60% of retail for the stock, so $53.99 per book.

327 copies x $89.99, plus 25 copies x $53.99 = $30776.48, which I rounded down as the revenue raised, way up above.

It's still available ... for now, anyway

As of this writing, there appear to be a few of the 549 copies still available for sale through the Frog God Games web site. There will be no more print runs of this format of the S&W version of ToH complete, and who knows how much longer they'll last, so – if you want one, grab one now!

Monday, September 17, 2012

Detangling the LotFP Adventures Campaign Results


The four successfully-funded projects in LotFP Adventures Campaign are difficult to use as crowdfunding data points, because they cannibalized and/or subsidized one another, and also because three significant, backer-enticing additions were made to the overall project pool once it became clear that only a scant few projects would fund, and you could potentially get some or all of those additions by pledging on any one of the successful projects. The following analysis attempts to detangle the projects from one another, and from the additions, in order to give a better idea of how each project did on its own merits.

The detangled results come first, with a methodology explanation afterward.

The Seclusium of Orphone
$6647 raised / 311 backers
(math: $355 Upsell + $4170 module only + $500 retailer + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $6647)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $7535 raised / 250 backers)

Broodmother Sky Fortress
$4757 raised / 221 backers
(math: $55 Upsell + $2580 module only + $500 retailer + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $4757)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $7050 raised / 167 backers)

Horror Amongst Thieves
$4955 raised / 228 backers
(math: $213 Upsell + $2620 module only + $500 retailer + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $4955)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $6623 raised / 177 backers)

Towers Two
$6683 raised ($3923 without GWAR swag) / 175 backers
(math: $501 Upsell + $760 module only + $3800 GWAR swag + $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $6683)
(results as shown on Indiegogo: $6601 raised / 112 backers)
Note to prospective module authors: Offer GWAR swag as perks. Or just be Brockie. But that may not help your return on investment.

bonus Conley sandbox supplement + bonus Raggi 8-page adventure
$1622 raised / 76 backers
(math: $1520 GB+ + $102 collector share = $1622)

bonus Raggi 64-page adventure
$3092 raised / 43 backers
(math: $2850 Faithful + $140 Collector + $102 collector share = $3092)

Methodology

First, a disclaimer: There are many ways the data can be detangled. This is merely one possibility. Enjoy it or don't. YMMV. Also, the total backer count on Indiegogo.com doesn't always match up to the sum of the backers in the various categories. And somehow, even though I double checked my math, the total of the numbers above comes up about $50 short of the sum of the totals as shown on Indiegogo. Sigh. And maybe I missed a concrete bonus offering somewhere. Good thing this study isn't meant to be precise.

Regarding Backer Count

Backers at the Grab Bag level, various Faithful levels, and the Collectors levels will receive each of the successful projects. (Let's call those backers "GB+".) Therefore, backers at those levels count toward all of the successful projects. For example, Seclusium's detangled backer count is 250, plus the 22 GB+ backers for Broodmother, plus the 25 GB+ backers for Horror, plus the 13 GB+ backers for Towers, for a total of 311.

Backers at the GB+ levels will also receive the bonus Conley sandbox supplement and the bonus Raggi 8-page adventure. Therefore, all backers at the GB+ level on the four successful projects count as backers of that "joint" bonus project. 16 + 22 + 25 + 13 = 76.

Backers at the Faithful and Collectors levels will receive the bonus Raggi 64-page adventure. Therefore, all backers at those levels on the four successful projects count as backers of the Raggi 64-page bonus. 13 + 15 + 11 + 4 = 43

Regarding Funds Raised

The amount each project raised via the Upsell category is not trivially visible. To determine the amount pledged via the Upsell, take the funding total and subtract the amounts pledged in the other categories. For example, Seclusium: $7535 - (10 x $75) - (81 x $20) - (60 x $30) - (3 x $100) - (7 x $160) - (4 x $180) - (2 x $185) - (2 x $250) = $355 toward Upsell. It's difficult to know what the Upsell money went toward, so for detangling purposes …

1. All Upsell money counts toward the project on which it was pledged.

2. All $10 / $20 / $30 pledges count toward the project on which it was pledged. (Duh.)

3. All Retailer Support ($250) pledges count toward the project on which it was pledged. (Duh again.)

4. The GWAR swag pledges count only toward Brockie's project. (Yup.)

5. All Grab Bag ($100) pledges are split five ways. $20 toward each of the base projects, plus $20 more toward the hybrid bonus Conley sandbox + Raggi 8-page category. (Or you could split it six ways and treat the hybrid as two projects. But 5 is good because the math with $20 is easier than math with $16.67.)

6. All Faithful ($160 / $180) pledges are split. The first $100 of those are split five ways, with $20 going to various projects, the same as with Grab Bag. The rest counts directly toward the only additional thing backers are supposed to receive: The Raggi 64-page adventure.

7. The two Collector ($450 / $500) pledges are split. The first $100 of each gets split five ways, as above. The next $60 / $80 of each counts toward the Raggi 64-page adventure. The rest gets split six ways ($610 / 6 = $102) and applied to each of the base projects, and the hybrid bonus, and the Raggi 64 bonus. After all, most or all of those products will be included in the hardback collection.

Furthermore:

Some of the projects added various gaming-related enticements. Horror was a no-risk pledge; backers would get the product (and their money back) if the project didn't successfully fund. Baker gave away free pdfs of his other material. Conley tossed in bonuses that potentially any pledger could get. These factors aren't worth detangling, because they're not unlike the extras other crowdfunding campaigns offer. (Well, Horror's enticements was unlike the other extras. But it's hard to detangle that.)

Friday, September 14, 2012

"Old School" projects on Kickstarter and Indiegogo


Sites like kickstarter.com and indiegogo.com provide an unprecedented level of transparency for short-term market size. (That is, the number of copies of a product you could expect to sell in the first few months.) These crowdfunding projects are directly or indirectly relevant to Gygaxian-era versions of D&D (plus the clones & simulacrums), which can be useful for predicting short-term sales numbers for similar projects.

Dates indicate the end of the particular crowdfunding campaigns.

2011 May 22: Dungeon Morph Dice
$20620 raised / 379 backers
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1764845067/dungeonmorph-dice-dungeon-geomorphs
Note: Obviously the appeal is not limited to the "Old School" D&D crowd.

2011 Aug 6: Adventurer Conqueror King
$11648 raised / 246 backers

2011 Dec 2: Classic Monsters for Castles & Crusades
$9108 raised / 166 backers / start 2011 Nov 2 (31 days)
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/676918054/castles-and-crusades-classic-monster-a-monster-man
Note: Not Gygaxian-era D&D, but including here as a comparative number.

2011 Dec 10: Labyrinth Lord Referee Screen
$1671 raised /  74 backers

2012 Jan 12 (?): Crypts & Things
$3435 raised / 108 backers

2012 Jan 15: Astonishing Swordsmen & Sorcerers of Hyboria
$13216 raised / 184 backers / start 2011 Dec 13 (34 days)

2012 Mar 25: The Monolith from beyond Space and Time plus The God that Crawls
$6241 raised / 154 backers / start 2012 Feb 9 (46 days)

2012 Apr 7: Random Dungeon Generator as a Dungeon Map
$27789 raised / 1098 backers / start 2012 Mar 7 (31 days)
Note: Obviously the appeal is not limited to the "Old School" D&D crowd.
2012 Apr 14: Dwimmermount
$48756 raised / 1023 backers / start 2012 Mar 2 (45 days)

2012 Apr 15: Adventures Dark and Deep – A Curious Volume of Forgotten Lore
$7459 raised / 244 backers / start 2012 Mar 15 (31 days)

2012 Apr 30: Metamorphosis Alpha
$18545 raised / 447 backers / start 2012 Apr 6 (25 days)
Note: Not actually "old school" D&D, but might have overlap of appeal.

2012 May 7: Myth & Magic Player's Guide
$24076 raised / 402 backers / start 2012 Mar 28 (41 days)
Note: Not Gygaxian-era D&D, but including here as a comparative number.

2012 Jun 1: LotFP Hardcover and Adventures Project
$16240 raised / 314 backers / start 2012 Apr 19 (44 days)

2012 Jun 05: Nystul's Infinite Dungeon
$16018 raised / 246 backers / start 2012 May 4 (33 days)
Note: Obviously the appeal is not limited to the "Old School" D&D crowd.

2012 Jun 11: Barrowmaze II
$12702 raised / 215 backers / start 2012 Apr 17 (25 days)

2012 Jun 15 Castles & Crusades Players Handbook 5th Edition
$16106 raised / 223 backers / start 2012 May 11 (46 days)
Note: Not Gygaxian-era D&D, but including here as a comparative number.

2012 Jun 16: Champions of Zed
$8077 raised / 259 backers / start 2012 May 1 (47 days)

2012 Jul 02: Rappan Athuk
$246541 raised / 1003 backers / started 2012 May 3 (61 days)
Note: Started 2012 May 03. Obviously the appeal is not limited to the "Old School" D&D crowd.

2012 Jul 02: Appendix N Adventure Toolkits
$18893 raised / 572 backers / started 2012 Jun 2 (30 days)
Note: Not Gygaxian-era D&D, but including here as a comparative number.

2012 Jul 31: Lamentations of the Flame Princess Adventures Campaign
started Jul 1 (31 days)
The Seclusium of Orphone
    $7535 raised / 250 backers
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPBaker
Broodmother Sky Fortress
    $7050 raised / 167 backers
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPRients
Horror Amongst Thieves
    $6623 raised / 177 backers
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPGreen
Towers Two
    $6601 raised / 112 backers
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPBrockie
(We Who Are Lost)
    $3221 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPKreider
(Of Unknown Providence)
    $1680 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPCurtis
(The Unbegotten Citadel)
    $1620 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPCook
(The House of Bone and Amber)
    $1270 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPCrawford
(Machinations of the Space Princess)
    $920 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPDesborough
(The Depths of Paranoia)
    $740 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPSteen
(Strange and Sinister Shores)
    $690 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPBingham
(Normal for Norfolk)
    $650 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPSeppala
(Escaping Leviathan)
    $645 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPAlfrey
(The Dreaming Plague)
    $540 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPVuorela
(The Land that Exuded Evil)
    $500 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPMiller
(Red in Beak and Claw)
    $470 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPSarkijarvi
(Pyre)
    $460 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPPett
(I Hate Myself for What I Must Do)
    $350 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPPohjola
(Poor Blighters)
    $340 raised / FAILED
    http://www.indiegogo.com/LotFPSparks

2012 Aug 05: (2013 Old-School Renaissance Calendar)
$130 raised / 5 backers / FAILED
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1429205189/2013-old-school-renaissance-calendar

2012 Aug 25: Reaper Miniatures Bones
$3429236 raised / 17682 backers / started Jul 23 (34 days)
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1513061270/reaper-miniatures-bones-an-evolution-of-gaming-min
Note: Obviously the appeal is not limited to the "Old School" D&D crowd. This data enables a very rough approximation of the number of "Old School" D&D players. (More on this later.)

2012 Sep 04: Swords & Wizardry Complete Rules
$78189 raised / 532 backers / started 2012 Aug 1 (35 days)
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/froggodgames/swords-and-wizardry-the-actual-1st-edition-rolepla

NOW can you identify the mystery crowdfunding project?

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Pop Quiz: Which crowdfunded project is this?


Pop Quiz!

Can you identify the following module that was made possible through crowdfunding (think: Kickstarter, Indiegogo, or similar)? Here are the clues:

- It was for use with TSR-era versions of AD&D/D&D.
- It sold approximately 300 print copies during its 60 day sponsorship phase.
- Shipping costs were paid by supporters as part of their pledge.
- It raised over $5000 in capital.
- Approximately 100 more print copies sold in the month following the physical release.